Maximilian Hess, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and founder of the political risk consultancy Enmetena Advisory, speaking from London, says Donald Trump’s diesel deal with Vladimir Putin won’t meaningfully affect US oil markets.
Hess says the initial 300,000 tons of Russian diesel is less than a day of US transport diesel use, and further amounts would be only a few days’ worth. He says it is unclear whether Russia can deliver, as it has not exported diesel since July because of Ukrainian strikes.
He calls the move “far more rhetorical” than a new sanctions move, noting that one-month waivers covered almost all Russian crude in March and April. He says the Lindsey Graham sanctions act has an October 19 deadline for some new measures. It puts sanctions in law, making them harder for Trump to lift, though he can suspend many. The suspension is written for six months.
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